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Tuesday 12 May 2026 5 T F W A D A I L Y Geopolitical uncertainty and shifting global trade dynamics took centre stage in an engaging opening keynote address by Singapore’s distinguished former diplomat and two-time Ambassador to the United Nations, Kishore Mahbubani. Geopolitics & the next generation: Navigating growth in a changingworld A s global tensions reshape trade routes, disrupt supply chains, and redraw the contours of consumer confidence, travel retail stands at the crossroads of geopolitics and economic reinvention. It was a packed auditorium for the opening keynote session of yesterday’s TFWA Asia Pacific Conference, in which Singapore’s distinguished former diplomat and two-time Ambassador to the United Nations, Kishore Mahbubani, explored how political realignments, shifting alliances, and emerging regional power blocs will influence business growth across Asia Pacific and beyond. “We all agree that we live in interesting times,” said Prof. Mahbubani. “This is one of the most confusing times I’ve experienced in my life. If you’re not confused, something is wrong with you.” Prof. Mahbubani framed the current environment as a period defined by overlapping global shocks, from the Covid-19 pandemic and rising protectionism to geopolitical conflict and structural shifts in trade. “The global system has been hit by several massive shocks,” he noted, including pandemic disruption, tariff escalation and the reconfiguration of US-China economic dynamics. Reflecting on the evolution of globalisation itself, Prof. Mahbubani contrasted today’s uncertainty with the optimism of the early 2000s. “25 years ago everyone was celebrating globalisation. It was going to raise living standards all over the world,” he said, recalling the influential voices of that era. “And that optimism seems rather strange now.” Despite this, Prof. Mahbubani argued that global integration remains fundamentally intact. Even recent crises, he suggested, have highlighted system resilience rather than collapse. “Our world should have been shattered by them, and yet the global economy continued to grow,” he said, pointing to continued trade expansion even amid heightened volatility. Prof. Mahbubani cited Asia’s economic dynamism and the structural rise of China and India as key drivers of long-term global growth. “China and India doing well is not a surprising phenomenon,” he said. “It’s a perfectly natural phenomenon.” A central theme of Prof. Mahbubani’s address was the idea that globalisation is not retreating but evolving. “Globalisation is still alive,” he stated, pointing to the interconnected nature of modern economies, energy markets and supply chains. Looking ahead, Prof. Mahbubani struck a cautiously optimistic tone. “The world has changed structurally,” he said, describing a deeply interconnected global system in which isolation is no longer feasible. “Humanity’s destiny is deeply intertwined.” He also highlighted the rise of a new global middle class across China, India and ASEAN markets, noting its implications for travel demand. “The first thing they want to do when they have access to a little bit of disposable income is to travel,” said Prof. Mahbubani. For the travel retail industry, his conclusion carried a clear message: while shocks may continue, the underlying drivers of mobility, aspiration and connectivity remain firmly in place. Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore (NUS): “The big question of our times is very simple: is globalisation a sunrise industry or a sunset industry? And the answer to that question will determine where we will be 10 to 20 years from now in the travel industry and other industries.”