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Human behaviour drives the economy McWilliams linked this creative impulse to the economic and social environments in which it is able to flourish. Throughout history, he suggested, periods of major artistic achievement have often coincided with periods of commercial vitality and openness. “The type of society that rewards them is a liberal, tolerant, open, embracing, cosmopolitan, eclectic, thoughtful and generous” society, he said. Where creative and commercial freedom are encouraged, new ideas and products can challenge established ones, creating what economist Joseph Schumpeter described as the “gales of creative destruction”. This idea is particularly relevant as economies around the world enter a period of significant change. For McWilliams, the economy is ultimately not an abstract machine governed by numbers and models, but the aggregation of billions of individual human decisions made every day. “To understand the economy, you have to understand the creature that is making these decisions, and that creature is us,” he explained. That, he argued, is where traditional economic thinking can sometimes fall short. Humans are not perfectly rational economic actors. They are social, emotional, unpredictable and heavily influenced by the stories they tell themselves and each other. For the travel retail audience, this has a clear commercial dimension. Consumers do not simply respond to prices and products in isolation; they influence one another, build aspirations around brands and create stories about what products mean. Using an anecdote about a colleague who had spent £15,000 on a watch, McWilliams illustrated how the value consumers place on products can extend far beyond their functional purpose. The watch, he noted, still only tells the time. The consumer is also buying identity, aspiration and social meaning. Globalisation enters a new phase McWilliams then turned to the changing nature of globalisation – an issue with direct implications for travel retail. He described the period following the fall of the Berlin Wall as an era characterised by free trade, free movement of people and free movement of capital. Since the global financial crisis and particularly following the disruption of recent years, he argued, the direction of travel has changed. “We’re in a new era,” he said. “Free trade in our children’s generation has been replaced by tariffs. Free movement of people has been replaced by deportation. Immigration has been replaced by barriers.” McWilliams argued that economic nationalism is gaining political traction as people respond to concerns about prosperity, inequality and economic security. He suggested that the coming decade could see increased trade barriers, particularly between Europe and China, as governments respond to changing competitive dynamics. He used the automotive sector as an example of the challenge facing established Western industries as Chinese companies become increasingly competitive, arguing that fundamentally different economic and manufacturing models are coming into closer competition. For travel retail, the tension is particularly significant. The industry depends on consumers who are increasingly international in their tastes, aspirations and travel patterns, even as political movements in many markets become more nationally focused. Responding to a question about this apparent contradiction, McWilliams acknowledged the tension: “You have this hyper- cosmopolitan consumer and this embryonic nationalism.” Yet he argued that consumption is ultimately driven less by taste than by income. Economic nationalismmay therefore prove attractive to people who feel economically insecure, even if consumers themselves continue to seek international brands, products and experiences. Innovation offers a route forward McWilliams also addressed artificial intelligence (AI), distinguishing between the technology’s potentially transformative long-term impact and the financial speculation surrounding it. He argued that AI could fundamentally reshape white-collar and clerical work, while warning that the current investment boom could ultimately result in a significant market correction. But his broader message was optimistic. Technology has repeatedly transformed how people live and work, he noted, and societies have continually adapted. Asked whether younger generations can regain the expectation of becoming more prosperous than their parents, McWilliams returned to the importance of creativity and human adaptability. “The beautiful thing about humanity is we do recalibrate, and we always recalibrate, and we always adapt,” he said. “We are inveterate problem solvers.” If AI transforms the traditional office economy, McWilliams suggested, qualities such as creativity, curiosity and entrepreneurship may become increasingly valuable. His final message was therefore less about predicting precisely what comes next than about creating the conditions in which people can respond to it. “Prosperity, innovation, commercial advantage, of every business you’re in depends on innovation,” McWilliams concluded. “Innovation and economic growth depends on this mad, mad little thing between your ears – the human mind, the curious mental human brain firing up all the time, unbelievably unpredictable, unbelievably irrational, and unbelievably brilliant.” For an industry operating at the intersection of international mobility, consumer behaviour, technology and commerce, it was a fittingly optimistic conclusion: whatever the next phase of the global economy brings, the capacity to adapt and create remains one of its most important assets. David McWilliams, Economist, author and podcaster: “The beautiful thing about humanity is we do recalibrate, and we always recalibrate, and we always adapt.” Tuesday 29 September 2026 12 T F W A D A I L Y